The Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) reports that the seasonal transition period, or pancaroba, in Bali is expected to last two to three ten‑day periods, roughly 30 days, with unstable atmospheric conditions that raise the potential for hydrometeorological disasters.
The head of the Bali Climate Station, Aminudin Al Roniri, explained that seasonal changes cause extreme weather that can shift rapidly. "Maka dari itu, potensi terjadinya bencana hidrometeorologi juga berpeluang tinggi, seperti tanah longsor, banjir, dan lain-lainnya," ujarnya pada Kamis (5/11).
Extreme weather has been felt since Sunday (1/11) to Monday (2/11), when heavy rain and strong winds caused dozens of trees to fall and landslides at several locations across the island of Bali.
BMKG projects that the onset of the rainy season in most of Indonesia will occur in November and December 2026. A very strong El Niño and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) raise air temperatures and reduce rainfall, resulting in a delay of the rainy season in about 61 percent of the area. BMKG chief Teuku Faisal Fathani said, "Musim hujan rata-rata di seluruh Indonesia diperkirakan mundur sekitar dua hingga tiga dasarian, atau 20-30 hari, akibat pengaruh El Nino," on Monday (26/10).
The rainy season will not start simultaneously; about 24 percent of Indonesia’s land area is expected to enter the rainy season in November, while 17 percent will do so in December. In addition to the delay, this year’s rainy season is predicted to be shorter with heavier rainfall.
Source: cnnindonesia.com
