The Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) projects rain with moderate to heavy intensity in 23 regions of Indonesia on Sunday, 8 November 2026. The forecast covers areas that could experience high rainfall on that day.
BMKG explains that atmospheric dynamics are still influenced by a very strong El Niño phenomenon and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which generally tend to reduce the potential for rain cloud formation. However, atmospheric wave activity and regional conditions can still support the development of rain clouds in several regions.
Madden‑Julian Oscillation (MJO) activity is expected to be in phase 2 to phase 3 over the Indian Ocean, with active impacts in southern Kalimantan, central to southern Sulawesi, Maluku, East Java, Bali, West Nusa Tenggara (NTB), and East Nusa Tenggara (NTT).
Equatorial Rossby waves are predicted to be active in parts of northern to central Sumatra and North Maluku, while Kelvin waves may be active in northern to central Sumatra, northern to central Kalimantan, northern Sulawesi, and North Maluku.
BMKG notes that rainfall for the 1st to 2nd decadal of November 2026 is expected to be in the low to medium category (0‑150 mm per decadal). Nevertheless, the potential for moderate to heavy rain accompanied by lightning, thunder, and strong winds can still occur in several areas, while regions with limited rainfall need to anticipate risks of drought as well as forest and land fires.
Source: cnnindonesia.com
